April 23rd, 2021
Dr. Saum K. Nour
This was Presented at the ASHRAE Spring Conference April 23rd, 2021, southern California Chapter through Zoom.
As first panelist to speak on theory and basics of Covid 19 virus for Indoor Ventilation Design, I relied on all historical challenges that the scientists, and engineers were to tackle the past pandemics.
| Most Notable Pandemics | ||||
| No. | Pandemic Name | Date | Description | |
| 1 | Prehistoric epidemic | Circa 3000 B.C. | Hamin Manga- China. All ages | |
| 2 | Plague of Athens. | 430 B.C | 5 years with ~100,000 Died | |
| 3 | Antonine Plague | A.D. 165-180 | Spread by Roman Soldiers 5 million people | |
| 4 | Plague of Cyprian | A.D. 250-271 | Cyprian, name of bishop of Carthage (Tunisia). Many dies, 5000 in one day in Rome (Population ~1,000,000) | |
| 5 | Plague of Justinian | A.D. 541-542 | 10% population of world died. | |
| 6 | The Black Death | 1346-1353 | Asia to Europe. 50% of Europe population | |
| 7 | Cocoliztli epidemic | 1545-1548 | Mexico and Central America 15 million died | |
| 8 | American Plagues | 16th century | Colonist transferred. 90% of indigenous died. | |
| 9 | Great Plague of London | 1665-1666 | London, ~100,000 died (15% of London) Then London Fire 1666. The Architecture of City was altered |
|
| 10 | Great Plague of Marseille | 1720-1723 | Three years, 30% of population of Marseille | |
| 11 | Russian plague | 1770-1772 | 100,000 died. Riots over quarantine. Then Many died during the riots/insurrections |
|
| 12 | Philadelphia yellow fever epidemic | 1793 | 5000 died | |
| 13 | Flu pandemic | 1889-1890 | Paris. 1 million | |
| 14 | American polio epidemic | 1916 | 6000 Americans | |
| 15 | Spanish Flu | 1918-1920 | 500 million died south sea to north pole | |
| 16 | Asian Flu | 1957-1958 | China. 1 million lives | |
| 17 | AIDS pandemic and epidemic | 1981-present day | 35 million across world 40 million living with HIV | |
| 18 | H1N1 Swine Flu pandemic | 2009-2010 | Mexico young/adults 151700 to 575400 killed | |
| 19 | West African (Liberia) Ebola epidemic | 2014-2016 | 11325 died | |
| 20 | Zika Virus epidemic | 2015-present day | South America and Central America |
Recent Memories of Diseases or outbreaks:
HIV infections, SARS, Lyme disease, Escherichia coli O157:H7 (E. coli), hantavirus, dengue fever, West Nile virus, and the Zika virus.
Re-emerging diseases:
malaria, tuberculosis, cholera, pertussis, influenza, pneumococcal disease, and gonorrhea.
All restroom sensors driven fixtures were pushed through recent pandemics.
Also, in history:
Paris: Haussmann’s renovation of Paris was a vast public works program commissioned by Emperor Napoléon III and directed by his prefect of Seine, Georges-Eugène Haussmann, between 1853 and 1870. It included the demolition of medieval neighborhoods that were deemed overcrowded and unhealthy by officials at the time; the building of wide avenues; new parks and squares; the annexation of the suburbs surrounding Paris; and the construction of new sewers, fountains and aqueducts. Haussmann’s work was met with fierce opposition, and he was finally dismissed by Napoleon III in 1870; but work on his projects continued until 1927. The street plan and distinctive appearance of the center of Paris today are largely the result of Haussmann’s renovation.
London: The Broad Street cholera outbreak (or Golden Square outbreak) was a Severe outbreak of cholera that occurred in 1854 near Broad Street (now Broadwick Street) in the Soho district of the City of Westminster, London, England, and occurred during the 1846–1860 cholera pandemic happening worldwide. This outbreak, which killed 616 people, is best known for the physician John Snow‘s study of its causes and his hypothesis that germ-contaminated water was the source of cholera, rather than particles in the air (referred to as “miasma“).[1][2] This discovery came to influence public health and the construction of improved sanitation facilities beginning in the mid-19th century. Later, the term “focus of infection” started to be used to describe sites, such as the Broad Street pump, in which conditions are good for transmission of an infection. Snow’s endeavor to find the cause of the transmission of cholera caused him to unknowingly create a double-blind experiment.
New York City in the late 1800s faced grim, cramped living conditions in tenement housing that once dominated the Lower East Side. During the 19th century, immigration steadily increased, causing New York City’s population to double every decade from 1800 to 1880.
Walls were erected to create extra rooms, floors were added, and housing spread into backyard areas. To keep up with the population increase, construction was done hastily, and corners were cut. Tenement buildings were constructed with cheap materials, had little or no indoor plumbing and lacked proper ventilation. These cramped and often unsafe quarters left many vulnerable to rapidly spreading illnesses and disasters like fires.
By 1900, more than 80,000 tenements had been built and housed 2.3 million people, two-thirds of the total city population.
Purpose or thesis of the topic:
A New Normal has to be defined, once everyone is vaccinated or reach “Herd Immunity” ~80-85% of population. However, building indoor environment must be ready to accept the population. We are not done.
Unfortunately:
There is not a unified, uniform, method at this time.
CDC under Implement Engineering Controls mandates:
Design and install engineering controls to reduce or eliminate exposures …. Examples of engineering controls include:
- physical barriers or partitions to guide patients through triage areas
- curtains between
patientspersonnel in shared areas
air-handling systems (with appropriate directionality, filtration, exchange rate, etc.) that are properly installed and maintained.
Engineer’s Mission Statement
Engineers must create new design and new thinking process for indoor environmental safety of occupants. Engineers’ design must provide confidence for general public to go back to their daily life..
This will be today and tomorrows’ Engineer’s task.
What does the battle look like?
- Virus leaches to existing living cells of body, kills and multiples.
- Covid 19- A 0.12-micron Novel virus (Unknown) identified in 2019.
- A very highly efficient respiratory infectious virus.
116 days
- UK Strand now is the predominant version. Higher efficacy of infection. 3x
- South African is even higher. 7x
- Now US has their own brand as well.
- How long is the Vaccine good for min 6 months?
- 75% Vaccines are for 14% countries.
- Till world is secure we are not.
- Still near 100,000 daily cases. 4 22 2021
Please read the entire manuscript attached below.
http://greenerade.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Saum-Nour-ASHRAE-Spring-conference-Spring-2021on-Covid-19.pdf
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